bayesRatings

Tigers at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final DET 6 – NYY 2
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
DET00100100004660
NYY00000000200272
Team box
DET·NYY
6
hits
7
1
home runs
1
4
walks
2
10
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kevin McGonigleDET1-5211
Amed RosarioNYY1-5111
Zach McKinstryDET1-5002
Dillon DinglerDET2-5100
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-5100
Riley GreeneDET0-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy MeltonDET6.12017
Keider Montero (W)DET2.00013
Will WarrenNYY5.15207
Camilo Doval (L)NYY1.01230

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +4
DET +4
1234567891011
largest lead: NYY 0 · DET 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 43%, NYY 57% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 4.7 – 4.0 DET
Expected total
8.7
TigersThe matchupYankees
+130Our fair odds−130
4.0Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating+0.19
4.2Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game3.8
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.16Home runs / game1.45
3.6Walks drawn / game4.0
37−49Season record48−37
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+13043%+10548.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13057%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
DETDetroit Tigers+0.7our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more31%
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·NYY
Jun 30 at NYY
last game
Jun 30 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
DET·NYY
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
4.2
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.8
37−49
season record
48−37
23−21
home record
22−17
14−28
away record
26−20
W2
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.16
home runs / game
1.45
3.6
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.45
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

DET · NYY · 98 days
Detroit TigersNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Jun 30at NYYDET 9 − 3
Jun 29at NYYDET 7 − 3
Jun 24at DETNYY 4 − 2
Jun 23at DETNYY 4 − 3
Jun 22at DETDET 5 − 3
Sep 11, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 3
Sep 10, 2025at NYYDET 11 − 1
Sep 9, 2025at NYYDET 12 − 2
Apr 9, 2025at DETNYY 4 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at DETDET 5 − 0

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 30at NYY9 − 3W
Jun 29at NYY7 − 3W
Jun 28vs HOU5 − 7L
Jun 27vs HOU6 − 8L
Jun 26vs HOU8 − 0W
Jun 25vs HOU1 − 2L
Jun 24vs NYY2 − 4L
Jun 23vs NYY3 − 4L
Jun 22vs NYY5 − 3W
Jun 21vs CHW5 − 4W

NYY · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L
Jun 21vs CIN1 − 4L