bayesRatings

Twins at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIN 2 – NYY 5
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN100100000260
NYY10200020560
Team box
MIN·NYY
6
hits
6
1
home runs
2
2
walks
3
14
strikeouts
4
130
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trent GrishamNYY2-3212
Kody ClemensMIN2-4211
Ben RiceNYY1-3112
Victor CaratiniMIN1-4001
Luke KeaschallMIN2-3000
Jose CaballeroNYY1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Paredes (L)MIN4.04322
Gerrit Cole (W)NYY5.05207
David Bednar (S)NYY1.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 3 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 42%, NYY 58% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupYankees
+140Our fair odds−140
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.10Power rating+0.17
4.9Runs / game4.8
5.2Allowed / game3.8
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.25Home runs / game1.44
3.3Walks drawn / game4.0
42−46Season record48−38
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYY chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+14042%+18135.6%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14058%−22869.5%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
MINMinnesota Twins+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINMike Paredes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 5 Kstarted
NYYGerrit Cole SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYY
Jul 1 at HOU
last game
Jul 1 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
MIN·NYY
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.9
runs / game
4.8
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
42−46
season record
48−38
22−23
home record
22−18
20−23
away record
26−20
W1
streak
L7
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.25
home runs / game
1.44
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.57
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

MIN · NYY · 100 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 5
Jun 4, 2024at NYYNYY 5 − 1
May 16, 2024at MINNYY 5 − 0

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W
Jun 30at HOU4 − 6L
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W

NYY · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W
Jun 22at DET3 − 5L