bayesRatings

Twins at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final MIN 4 – HOU 6
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN300010000461
HOU00060000671
Team box
MIN·HOU
6
hits
7
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yordan AlvarezHOU3-4114
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-4002
Yainer DiazHOU1-3101
Josh BellMIN1-4001
Kody ClemensMIN2-4200
Jose AltuveHOU0-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joe Ryan (L)MIN4.05035
Mike Burrows (W)HOU5.06423
Josh Hader (S)HOU1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 3 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, HOU 54% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.6 MIN
Expected total
9.4
TwinsThe matchupAstros
+116Our fair odds−116
4.6Expected runs4.8
−0.11Power rating−0.03
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.2Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.24Home runs / game1.32
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
41−45Season record42−45
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11646%−11653.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−11654%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 24 Kstarted
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·HOU
Jun 29 at HOU
last game
Jun 29 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
MIN·HOU
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.2
runs allowed / game
5.0
41−45
season record
42−45
22−23
home record
20−22
19−22
away record
22−23
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.24
home runs / game
1.32
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.55
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

MIN · HOU · 97 days
Minnesota TwinsHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Jun 29at HOUMIN 5 − 4
May 20at MINMIN 4 − 1
May 19at MINHOU 2 − 1
May 18at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 3
Apr 6, 2025at MINHOU 9 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 1
Apr 3, 2025at MINHOU 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L
Jun 21at ARI4 − 2W
Jun 20at ARI16 − 8W
Jun 19at ARI5 − 9L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 29vs MIN4 − 5L
Jun 28at DET7 − 5W
Jun 27at DET8 − 6W
Jun 26at DET0 − 8L
Jun 25at DET2 − 1W
Jun 24at TOR3 − 1W
Jun 23at TOR9 − 7W
Jun 22at TOR2 − 4L
Jun 21vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 20vs CLE1 − 8L