bayesRatings

Twins at Yankees

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 12:35 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final MIN 11 – NYY 4
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN32010014011110
NYY000130000472
Team box
MIN·NYY
11
hits
7
6
home runs
2
5
walks
6
10
strikeouts
9
150
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN3-5223
Kody ClemensMIN2-4213
Max SchuemannNYY2-2112
Trevor LarnachMIN2-3211
Jasson DominguezNYY2-5111
Alex JacksonMIN1-5111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby MatthewsMIN4.23445
Taylor Rogers (W)MIN0.20000
Brendan Beck (L)NYY3.25523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
MIN +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · MIN 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 41%, NYY 59% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.2 – 4.2 MIN
Expected total
9.3
TwinsThe matchupYankees
+143Our fair odds−143
4.2Expected runs5.2
−0.11Power rating+0.18
4.8Runs / game4.9
5.2Allowed / game3.8
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.25Home runs / game1.45
3.3Walks drawn / game3.9
42−47Season record49−38
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NYY chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshi44.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+14341%+12444.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14359%−15460.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
MINMinnesota Twins+1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 15 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 16 Kstarted
NYYBrendan Beck RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NYY
Jul 3 at NYY
last game
Jul 3 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
MIN·NYY
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
4.8
runs / game
4.9
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.8
42−47
season record
49−38
22−23
home record
23−18
20−24
away record
26−20
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.25
home runs / game
1.45
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.56
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

MIN · NYY · 101 days
Minnesota TwinsNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Jul 3at NYYNYY 5 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 5
Sep 16, 2025at MINNYY 10 − 9
Sep 15, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at NYYMIN 4 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jun 6, 2024at NYYNYY 8 − 5
Jun 5, 2024at NYYNYY 9 − 5
Jun 4, 2024at NYYNYY 5 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 3at NYY2 − 5L
Jul 1at HOU8 − 3W
Jun 30at HOU4 − 6L
Jun 29at HOU5 − 4W
Jun 28vs COL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs COL5 − 8L
Jun 26vs COL9 − 8W
Jun 24vs LAD3 − 4L
Jun 23vs LAD3 − 12L
Jun 22vs LAD1 − 2L

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 3vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 1vs DET2 − 6L
Jun 30vs DET3 − 9L
Jun 29vs DET3 − 7L
Jun 28at BOS4 − 5L
Jun 27at BOS1 − 4L
Jun 26at BOS1 − 6L
Jun 25at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 24at DET4 − 2W
Jun 23at DET4 − 3W