bayesRatings

Rangers at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TEX 4 – CLE 9
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX001002010480
CLE050000229110
Team box
TEX·CLE
8
hits
11
1
home runs
2
6
walks
2
8
strikeouts
8
137
pitches thrown
154
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin HedgesCLE1-3213
David FryCLE1-3113
Elias DiazTEX2-4112
Chase DeLauterCLE3-5101
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-5000
Kahlil WatsonCLE2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX5.07517
Joey Cantillo (W)CLE5.03254

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.8 – 3.5 TEX
Expected total
7.2
RangersThe matchupGuardians
+107Our fair odds−107
3.5Expected runs3.8
+0.01Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game3.9
4.1Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game7.5
1.06Home runs / game0.90
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
44−42Season record44−42
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi51.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10748%−10751.8%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10752%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.2
Over7.2our total————
Under7.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run33%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.2 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 10%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 14%6 runs: 9%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 5%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 3%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 7.540%
Total over 9.523%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.42 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·CLE
Jun 30 at CLE
last game
Jun 30 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
TEX·CLE
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
3.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.1
44−42
season record
44−42
19−18
home record
21−20
25−24
away record
23−22
W6
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.5
1.06
home runs / game
0.90
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.47
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

TEX · CLE · 98 days
Texas RangersCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 3−7
Jun 30at CLETEX 4 − 2
Jun 29at CLETEX 6 − 3
Jun 7at TEXTEX 10 − 0
Jun 6at TEXCLE 6 − 0
Jun 5at TEXTEX 3 − 2
Sep 28, 2025at CLECLE 9 − 8
Sep 27, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 26, 2025at CLETEX 7 − 3
Aug 24, 2025at TEXTEX 5 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at TEXTEX 10 − 0

TEX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Jun 30at CLE4 − 2W
Jun 29at CLE6 − 3W
Jun 28at TOR3 − 2W
Jun 27at TOR7 − 4W
Jun 26at TOR5 − 4W
Jun 25at TOR6 − 5W
Jun 24at MIA2 − 4L
Jun 23at MIA4 − 6L
Jun 22at MIA4 − 3W
Jun 21vs SD4 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 30vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 29vs TEX3 − 6L
Jun 28vs SEA6 − 5W
Jun 27vs SEA4 − 3W
Jun 26vs SEA1 − 3L
Jun 24at CHW4 − 3W
Jun 23at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L
Jun 20at HOU8 − 1W