bayesRatings

White Sox at Guardians

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final CHW 5 – CLE 6
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW0000320005100
CLE002001102692
Team box
CHW·CLE
10
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
9
6
strikeouts
4
156
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brayan RocchioCLE1-4113
Chase MeidrothCHW1-4112
David FryCLE1-1111
Kyle TeelCHW1-4002
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4101
Travis BazzanaCLE2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Davis MartinCHW3.16250
Grant Taylor (L)CHW1.11222
Slade CecconiCLE5.09513
Tim Herrin (W)CLE1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
CHW +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · CHW 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.6 CHW
Expected total
7.6
White SoxThe matchupGuardians
+115Our fair odds−115
3.6Expected runs3.9
−0.05Power rating+0.03
4.8Runs / game4.0
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game7.5
1.40Home runs / game0.91
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
45−40Season record45−42
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+11546%−10350.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11554%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more37%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·CLE
Jul 1 at BAL
last game
Jul 1 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
CHW·CLE
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.8
runs / game
4.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
45−40
season record
45−42
28−14
home record
22−20
17−26
away record
23−22
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.5
1.40
home runs / game
0.91
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.49
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

CHW · CLE · 99 days
Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Jun 24at CHWCLE 4 − 3
Jun 23at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 22at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 0
Aug 10, 2025at CHWCHW 6 − 4
Aug 9, 2025at CHWCLE 3 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at CHWCLE 9 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at CHWCLE 6 − 5

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 1at BAL1 − 6L
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W
Jun 28vs KC4 − 5L
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W
Jun 24vs CLE3 − 4L
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 1vs TEX9 − 4W
Jun 30vs TEX2 − 4L
Jun 29vs TEX3 − 6L
Jun 28vs SEA6 − 5W
Jun 27vs SEA4 − 3W
Jun 26vs SEA1 − 3L
Jun 24at CHW4 − 3W
Jun 23at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 22at CHW5 − 6L
Jun 21at HOU1 − 2L