bayesRatings

White Sox at Orioles

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 5:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CHW 9 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW1071000009110
BAL100020000390
Team box
CHW·BAL
11
hits
9
2
home runs
0
6
walks
3
13
strikeouts
6
136
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jacob GonzalezCHW3-5103
Junior PerezCHW1-4113
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-5112
Andrew BenintendiCHW3-4101
Samuel BasalloBAL2-3001
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Erick Fedde (W)CHW5.05333
Tyler Schweitzer (S)CHW4.04003
Trey Gibson (L)BAL2.27865

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +8
CHW +8
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · CHW 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 49%, BAL 51% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
Expected total
9.5
White SoxThe matchupOrioles
+104Our fair odds−104
4.9Expected runs4.6
−0.05Power rating−0.08
4.8Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.40Home runs / game1.16
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
44−39Season record39−47
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10449%+12444.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10451%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byBAL wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWErick Fedde SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 6 Kstarted
BALTrey Gibson SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·BAL
Jun 29 at BAL
last game
Jun 29 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
CHW·BAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.8
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
44−39
season record
39−47
28−14
home record
23−22
16−25
away record
16−25
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.40
home runs / game
1.16
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.51
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

CHW · BAL · 97 days
Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 9−1
Jun 29at BALCHW 8 − 2
Apr 8at CHWBAL 5 − 3
Apr 7at CHWBAL 4 − 2
Apr 6at CHWBAL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at CHWBAL 3 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at CHWBAL 8 − 7
Sep 15, 2025at CHWBAL 4 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 31, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2
May 30, 2025at BALBAL 2 − 1

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W
Jun 28vs KC4 − 5L
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W
Jun 24vs CLE3 − 4L
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L