bayesRatings

Nationals at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final WSH 6 – BAL 4
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH003020100670
BAL200000200451
Team box
WSH·BAL
7
hits
5
2
home runs
2
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
5
142
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH3-5325
Pete AlonsoBAL1-4112
Jackson HollidayBAL1-3112
Colton CowserBAL2-3100
Adley RutschmanBAL1-3100
Keibert RuizWSH1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Littell (W)WSH5.03223
PJ Poulin (S)WSH2.00010
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL4.01352

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +4
WSH +4
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · WSH 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, BAL 52% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 5.1 – 5.0 BAL
Expected total
10.2
NationalsThe matchupOrioles
+109Our fair odds−109
5.1Expected runs5.0
−0.08Power rating−0.07
5.3Runs / game4.6
5.2Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game8.0
1.31Home runs / game1.17
3.2Walks drawn / game3.8
42−42Season record39−45
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · BAL chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi37.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10948%+16637.6%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10952%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals−0.1our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byBAL wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more39%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more29%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHZack Littell SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 6 Kstarted
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·BAL
Jun 27 at BAL
last game
Jun 27 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
WSH·BAL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.3
runs / game
4.6
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
42−42
season record
39−45
17−25
home record
23−20
25−17
away record
16−25
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.0
1.31
home runs / game
1.17
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.81
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

WSH · BAL · 95 days
Washington NationalsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
Jun 27at BALWSH 4 − 3
Jun 26at BALBAL 3 − 1
May 17at WSHBAL 7 − 3
May 16at WSHWSH 13 − 3
May 15at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 18, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 6
May 16, 2025at BALWSH 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2025at WSHBAL 2 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L
Jun 18at SEA0 − 3L
Jun 17at SEA5 − 3W