bayesRatings

Nationals at Orioles

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final WSH 1 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH000010000151
BAL00020010381
Team box
WSH·BAL
5
hits
8
0
home runs
0
0
walks
7
10
strikeouts
12
171
pitches thrown
115
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Taylor WardBAL3-5100
Blaze AlexanderBAL1-3002
Coby MayoBAL2-4101
Keibert RuizWSH1-3001
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2100
Jackson HollidayBAL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew Alvarez (L)WSH4.16235
Trevor Rogers (W)BAL6.15107
Ryan Helsley (S)BAL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
WSH +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, BAL 52% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 5.2 – 5.1 BAL
Expected total
10.3
NationalsThe matchupOrioles
+109Our fair odds−109
5.2Expected runs5.1
−0.09Power rating−0.07
5.3Runs / game4.7
5.3Allowed / game5.0
8.4Hits / game8.0
1.33Home runs / game1.20
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
41−41Season record38−44
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · BAL chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+10948%+11446.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10952%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Nationals−0.2our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.3
Over10.3our total————
Under10.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 15%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byBAL wins by →
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more39%
Washington Nationals wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.561%
Total over 10.544%
Total over 12.530%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHAndrew Alvarez SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·BAL
Jun 25 vs PHI
last game
Jun 24 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
WSH·BAL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
5.3
runs / game
4.7
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
41−41
season record
38−44
17−25
home record
22−19
24−16
away record
16−25
L3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.0
1.33
home runs / game
1.20
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.80
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

WSH · BAL · 93 days
Washington NationalsBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
May 17at WSHBAL 7 − 3
May 16at WSHWSH 13 − 3
May 15at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 18, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 6
May 16, 2025at BALWSH 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2025at WSHBAL 2 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 22, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 1

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L
Jun 17vs KC2 − 6L
Jun 16vs KC6 − 4W
Jun 15vs KC7 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W
Jun 19at LAD5 − 6L
Jun 18at SEA0 − 3L
Jun 17at SEA5 − 3W
Jun 16at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 14vs SD2 − 5L