bayesRatings

Royals at White Sox

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 1:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final KC 5 – CHW 4
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC1211000005110
CHW220000000471
Team box
KC·CHW
11
hits
7
0
home runs
1
2
walks
5
8
strikeouts
6
155
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-2212
Carter JensenKC3-5002
Kyle TeelCHW1-4002
Lane ThomasKC2-5101
Starling MarteKC2-5100
Salvador PerezKC2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luinder AvilaKC4.06434
Steven Cruz (W)KC1.00001
Alex Lange (S)KC1.00000
Anthony Kay (L)CHW3.27312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · KC 1lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, CHW 53% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.3 KC
Expected total
9.0
RoyalsThe matchupWhite Sox
+114Our fair odds−114
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.12Power rating−0.05
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.0Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.1
0.98Home runs / game1.42
3.3Walks drawn / game3.4
34−50Season record43−38
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair46.8%53.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11447%+11945.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11453%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCLuinder Avila SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 7.94 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CHW
Jun 27 at CHW
last game
Jun 27 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
KC·CHW
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
34−50
season record
43−38
19−22
home record
28−13
15−28
away record
15−25
L4
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.1
0.98
home runs / game
1.42
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.44
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

KC · CHW · 95 days
Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 7−3
Jun 27at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 26at CHWCHW 22 − 1
May 14at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 13at CHWCHW 6 − 5
May 12at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Apr 12at KCCHW 6 − 5
Apr 11at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 10at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 9at KCCHW 2 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at CHWKC 12 − 1

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Jun 27at CHW1 − 2L
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W
Jun 24vs CLE3 − 4L
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L