bayesRatings

Royals at Rays

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final KC 2 – TB 1
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC010010000240
TB000010000160
Team box
KC·TB
4
hits
6
0
home runs
0
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
8
132
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Lane ThomasKC1-4001
Carter JensenKC1-4001
Yandy DiazTB1-3001
Chandler SimpsonTB2-4000
Nick LoftinKC1-3100
Maikel GarciaKC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (W)KC7.06115
Alex Lange (S)KC1.00001
Drew Rasmussen (L)TB6.04225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 0 · KC 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 45%, TB 55% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 3.8 KC
Expected total
8.2
RoyalsThe matchupRays
+120Our fair odds−120
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.08Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.3
8.3Hits / game8.6
0.99Home runs / game0.84
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
32−46Season record43−31
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TB chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12045%+15938.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−12055%−19165.6%———
SpreadTB by 0.5
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.5 expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 5.30 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 0.43 ERA, 29 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TB
Jun 21 vs STL
last game
Jun 21 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
KC·TB
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
32−46
season record
43−31
19−22
home record
26−10
13−24
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.6
0.99
home runs / game
0.84
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.42
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

KC · TB · 89 days
Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Jun 26, 2025at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at KCTB 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at KCTB 5 − 1
May 1, 2025at TBKC 8 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TBKC 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2025at TBKC 3 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at KCTB 10 − 8
Jul 3, 2024at KCKC 4 − 2
Jul 2, 2024at KCTB 5 − 1
May 26, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L
Jun 15at WSH3 − 7L
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W
Jun 13vs HOU7 − 8L
Jun 12vs HOU8 − 10L
Jun 11vs TEX2 − 4L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W
Jun 13at LAA0 − 8L
Jun 12at LAA3 − 4L
Jun 10vs BOS7 − 5W