bayesRatings

Royals at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, Jun 27 · 3:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final KC 1 – CHW 2
← MLB / Jun 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000100162
CHW0000001012100
Team box
KC·CHW
6
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
8
129
pitches thrown
136
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-4001
Jacob GonzalezCHW1-4001
Colson MontgomeryCHW2-4100
Chase MeidrothCHW2-4000
Michael MasseyKC2-2000
Carter JensenKC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael WachaKC7.26117
Daniel Lynch IV (L)KC0.13100
Davis MartinCHW5.14013
Grant Taylor (W)CHW2.00004

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 47%, CHW 53% · Updated Jun 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.7 – 4.4 KC
Expected total
9.1
RoyalsThe matchupWhite Sox
+113Our fair odds−113
4.4Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating−0.06
4.2Runs / game4.8
5.1Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.1
0.99Home runs / game1.44
3.3Walks drawn / game3.5
34−49Season record42−38
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11347%+10548.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−11353%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 14%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 10 Kstarted
CHWDavis Martin SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.87 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CHW
Jun 26 at CHW
last game
Jun 26 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
KC·CHW
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.2
runs / game
4.8
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.6
34−49
season record
42−38
19−22
home record
27−13
15−27
away record
15−25
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.1
0.99
home runs / game
1.44
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.42
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

KC · CHW · 94 days
Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 6−4
Jun 26at CHWCHW 22 − 1
May 14at CHWCHW 6 − 2
May 13at CHWCHW 6 − 5
May 12at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Apr 12at KCCHW 6 − 5
Apr 11at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 10at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 9at KCCHW 2 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at CHWKC 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at CHWKC 5 − 4

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jun 26at CHW1 − 22L
Jun 25at TB2 − 13L
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W
Jun 24vs CLE3 − 4L
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L
Jun 19at DET3 − 4L
Jun 18at NYY5 − 1W
Jun 17at NYY5 − 10L
Jun 16at NYY2 − 12L