bayesRatings

Royals at Rays

MLB · Thursday, Jun 25 · 11:10 AM CT · Tropicana Field · Final KC 2 – TB 13
← MLB / Jun 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000002210
TB2003201513150
Team box
KC·TB
1
hits
15
1
home runs
4
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
153
pitches thrown
129
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB3-5336
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-3113
Carter JensenKC1-4112
Jonathan ArandaTB3-5201
Cedric MullinsTB2-4200
Richie PalaciosTB2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (L)KC5.07723
Casey LeguminaTB1.10000
Ian Seymour (W)TB6.20017

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +13
KC +13
123456789
largest lead: TB 13 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, TB 54% · Updated Jun 25

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.3 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.3
RoyalsThe matchupRays
+117Our fair odds−117
4.0Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating+0.02
4.3Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.00Home runs / game0.82
3.4Walks drawn / game3.6
34−47Season record44−33
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11746%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11754%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 6 Kstarted
TBCasey Legumina RP · last 2 starts: 2.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TB
Jun 24 at TB
last game
Jun 24 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
KC·TB
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.3
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
34−47
season record
44−33
19−22
home record
27−12
15−25
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.00
home runs / game
0.82
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.42
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

KC · TB · 92 days
Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Jun 24at TBTB 5 − 3
Jun 23at TBKC 12 − 5
Jun 22at TBKC 2 − 1
Jun 26, 2025at KCTB 4 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at KCTB 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at KCTB 5 − 1
May 1, 2025at TBKC 8 − 2
Apr 30, 2025at TBKC 3 − 0
Apr 29, 2025at TBKC 3 − 1
Jul 4, 2024at KCTB 10 − 8

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 24at TB3 − 5L
Jun 23at TB12 − 5W
Jun 22at TB2 − 1W
Jun 21vs STL10 − 12L
Jun 19vs STL6 − 5W
Jun 18vs STL14 − 6W
Jun 17at WSH6 − 2W
Jun 16at WSH4 − 6L
Jun 15at WSH3 − 7L
Jun 14vs HOU4 − 0W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L
Jun 14at LAA8 − 3W