bayesRatings

White Sox at Orioles

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 11:35 AM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final CHW 1 – BAL 6
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHW100000000140
BAL00004101670
Team box
CHW·BAL
4
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
7
6
strikeouts
12
166
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sam AntonacciCHW2-4111
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-2111
Leody TaverasBAL1-3211
Blaze AlexanderBAL2-4101
Taylor WardBAL1-3001
Adley RutschmanBAL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Schultz (L)CHW4.12347
Dean Kremer (W)BAL6.04114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +5
CHW +5
123456789
largest lead: BAL 5 · CHW 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHW 50%, BAL 50% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
CHW by 0.5
Expected score
CHW 5.0 – 4.5 BAL
Expected total
9.5
White SoxThe matchupOrioles
+100Our fair odds−100
5.0Expected runs4.5
−0.04Power rating−0.09
4.9Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game8.0
1.40Home runs / game1.15
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
45−39Season record39−48
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHW chance · BAL chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHWChicago White Sox+10050%+12943.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles−10050%−15460.7%———
SpreadCHW by 0.5
CHWChicago White Sox−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago White Sox by 0.5 expected
Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 10%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← CHW wins byBAL wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BALDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHW·BAL
Jun 30 at BAL
last game
Jun 30 vs CHW
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
CHW·BAL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.9
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
5.0
45−39
season record
39−48
28−14
home record
23−23
17−25
away record
16−25
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.0
1.40
home runs / game
1.15
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.50
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

CHW · BAL · 98 days
Chicago White SoxBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 8−2
Jun 30at BALCHW 9 − 3
Jun 29at BALCHW 8 − 2
Apr 8at CHWBAL 5 − 3
Apr 7at CHWBAL 4 − 2
Apr 6at CHWBAL 2 − 1
Sep 17, 2025at CHWBAL 3 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at CHWBAL 8 − 7
Sep 15, 2025at CHWBAL 4 − 1
Jun 1, 2025at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 31, 2025at BALBAL 4 − 2

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 30at BAL9 − 3W
Jun 29at BAL8 − 2W
Jun 28vs KC4 − 5L
Jun 27vs KC2 − 1W
Jun 26vs KC22 − 1W
Jun 24vs CLE3 − 4L
Jun 23vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 22vs CLE6 − 5W
Jun 21at DET4 − 5L
Jun 20at DET1 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jun 30vs CHW3 − 9L
Jun 29vs CHW2 − 8L
Jun 28vs WSH4 − 6L
Jun 27vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 26vs WSH3 − 1W
Jun 24at LAA6 − 7L
Jun 23at LAA1 − 5L
Jun 22at LAA6 − 1W
Jun 21at LAD12 − 1W
Jun 20at LAD3 − 2W