bayesRatings

Brewers at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Jul 12 · 11:15 AM CT · PNC Park · Final MIL 5 – PIT 14
← MLB / Jul 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000200030581
PIT04010000014150
Team box
MIL·PIT
8
hits
15
1
home runs
2
4
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
168
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Henry DavisPIT2-4313
Marcell OzunaPIT2-5212
Jared TrioloPIT3-5102
Brice TurangMIL1-3112
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-2202
Nick GonzalesPIT2-5102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert Gasser (L)MIL3.08703
Paul Skenes (W)PIT5.13217

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +12
MIL +12
123456789
largest lead: PIT 12 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 57%, PIT 43% · Updated Jul 12

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.3 – 4.0 PIT
Expected total
9.3
BrewersThe matchupPirates
−135Our fair odds+135
5.3Expected runs4.0
+0.36Power rating+0.01
5.1Runs / game5.2
3.7Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game9.1
0.93Home runs / game1.28
4.1Walks drawn / game3.8
59−36Season record49−47
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13557%+10947.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+13543%−13156.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byPIT wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·PIT
Jul 11 at PIT
last game
Jul 11 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
8
games in last 7 days
6
11th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 95+ games
MIL·PIT
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.1
runs / game
5.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.9
59−36
season record
49−47
29−18
home record
26−24
30−18
away record
23−23
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
9.1
0.93
home runs / game
1.28
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.41
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

MIL · PIT · 109 days
Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Jul 11at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jul 11at PITPIT 7 − 6
Apr 26at MILMIL 5 − 0
Apr 25at MILPIT 6 − 3
Apr 24at MILPIT 6 − 0
Sep 7, 2025at PITMIL 10 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at PITMIL 4 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at PITMIL 5 − 2
Aug 13, 2025at MILMIL 12 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at MILMIL 14 − 0

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 11at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 11at PIT6 − 7L
Jul 9at STL8 − 4W
Jul 8at STL1 − 5L
Jul 7at STL10 − 2W
Jul 7at STL4 − 3W
Jul 6at STL4 − 3W
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 11vs MIL3 − 2W
Jul 11vs MIL7 − 6W
Jul 9vs ATL5 − 10L
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L