bayesRatings

Pirates at Nationals

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 5:45 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final PIT 5 – WSH 9
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0010000045130
WSH113000229122
Team box
PIT·WSH
13
hits
12
1
home runs
5
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
2
141
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Daylen LileWSH3-4224
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2-4223
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5212
Jose TenaWSH1-5112
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT3-5101
Brandon LowePIT1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Keller (L)PIT6.08501
Foster Griffin (W)WSH5.04112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +8
PIT +8
123456789
largest lead: WSH 8 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
PIT by 0.6
Expected score
PIT 5.8 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.9
PiratesThe matchupNationals
+102Our fair odds−102
5.8Expected runs5.2
−0.01Power rating−0.06
5.1Runs / game5.3
4.9Allowed / game5.1
9.0Hits / game8.5
1.26Home runs / game1.33
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
44−44Season record45−43
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10249%+11945.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10251%−14258.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.6
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.6 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byWSH wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more43%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.549%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 15 Kstarted
WSHFoster Griffin SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 0.89 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·WSH
Jul 2 at PHI
last game
Jul 1 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
PIT·WSH
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
5.1
runs / game
5.3
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.1
44−44
season record
45−43
23−22
home record
17−25
21−22
away record
28−18
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
9.0
hits / game
8.5
1.26
home runs / game
1.33
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.64
errors / game
0.78

Rating Trend

PIT · WSH · 100 days
Pittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Apr 16at PITWSH 8 − 7
Apr 15at PITPIT 2 − 0
Apr 14at PITWSH 5 − 4
Apr 13at PITPIT 16 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1
Apr 15, 2025at PITWSH 3 − 0

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W