bayesRatings

Nationals at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 12:35 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final WSH 10 – BOS 2
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH20050030010130
BOS000000020290
Team box
WSH·BOS
13
hits
9
3
home runs
0
10
walks
4
10
strikeouts
10
178
pitches thrown
178
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James WoodWSH2-4213
Andres ChaparroWSH1-2112
Nasim NunezWSH1-4111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-4102
Jacob YoungWSH2-3101
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brad LordWSH2.12021
Andrew Alvarez (W)WSH4.22016
Payton Tolle (L)BOS3.07635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +9
WSH +9
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · WSH 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
BOS by 0.5
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.2 WSH
Expected total
8.8
NationalsThe matchupRed Sox
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.07Power rating+0.01
5.3Runs / game4.0
5.2Allowed / game4.0
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.31Home runs / game0.87
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
44−43Season record37−47
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11546%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11554%−14859.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.5
WSHWashington Nationals+0.5our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.5 expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 7%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHBrad Lord RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 12 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·BOS
Jun 30 at BOS
last game
Jun 30 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
WSH·BOS
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.3
runs / game
4.0
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.0
44−43
season record
37−47
17−25
home record
17−26
27−18
away record
20−21
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.31
home runs / game
0.87
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.79
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

WSH · BOS · 98 days
Washington NationalsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 6−4
Jun 30at BOSWSH 8 − 1
Jun 29at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jul 6, 2025at WSHBOS 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at WSHBOS 10 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at WSHBOS 11 − 2
May 12, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 2
May 11, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 2
May 10, 2024at BOSWSH 5 − 1
Aug 17, 2023at WSHWSH 10 − 7
Aug 16, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 2

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jun 30vs WSH1 − 8L
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L