bayesRatings

Nationals at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final WSH 8 – BOS 1
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH0000103408121
BOS100000000140
Team box
WSH·BOS
12
hits
4
1
home runs
0
5
walks
0
8
strikeouts
13
127
pitches thrown
156
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Keibert RuizWSH2-3203
James WoodWSH3-5002
CJ AbramsWSH1-5111
Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1-3002
Dylan CrewsWSH2-5000
Daylen LileWSH2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade Cavalli (W)WSH7.010013
Connelly EarlyBOS4.03025
Greg Weissert (L)BOS1.21211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +7
WSH +7
123456789
largest lead: BOS 1 · WSH 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
BOS by 0.7
Expected score
BOS 4.8 – 4.1 WSH
Expected total
8.8
NationalsThe matchupRed Sox
+119Our fair odds−119
4.1Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating+0.03
5.3Runs / game4.0
5.2Allowed / game3.9
8.4Hits / game8.2
1.31Home runs / game0.88
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
43−43Season record37−46
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11946%+10947.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11954%−13156.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.7
WSHWashington Nationals+0.7our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.7 expected
Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more42%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHCade Cavalli SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 13 Kstarted
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·BOS
Jun 29 at BOS
last game
Jun 29 vs WSH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
WSH·BOS
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
5.3
runs / game
4.0
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
43−43
season record
37−46
17−25
home record
17−25
26−18
away record
20−21
L1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.2
1.31
home runs / game
0.88
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.79
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

WSH · BOS · 97 days
Washington NationalsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Jun 29at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jul 6, 2025at WSHBOS 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at WSHBOS 10 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at WSHBOS 11 − 2
May 12, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 2
May 11, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 2
May 10, 2024at BOSWSH 5 − 1
Aug 17, 2023at WSHWSH 10 − 7
Aug 16, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 2
Aug 15, 2023at WSHBOS 5 − 4

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jun 29vs WSH6 − 3W
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W