bayesRatings

Nationals at Red Sox

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final WSH 3 – BOS 6
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
WSH100002000370
BOS41100000690
Team box
WSH·BOS
7
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
1
12
strikeouts
4
116
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS1-2113
Caleb DurbinBOS1-3111
James WoodWSH1-4111
CJ AbramsWSH1-4002
Anthony SeiglerBOS2-3100
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Miles Mikolas (L)WSH7.09603
Ranger Suarez (W)BOS6.05318
Garrett Whitlock (S)BOS1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +5
WSH +5
123456789
largest lead: BOS 5 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.7 – 4.1 WSH
Expected total
8.8
NationalsThe matchupRed Sox
+118Our fair odds−118
4.1Expected runs4.7
−0.08Power rating+0.02
5.3Runs / game4.0
5.2Allowed / game3.9
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.32Home runs / game0.87
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
43−42Season record36−46
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · BOS chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi40.7%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Nationals+11846%+14640.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−11854%−18364.6%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← WSH wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more41%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more31%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
WSHMiles Mikolas SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 8 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·BOS
Jun 28 at BAL
last game
Jun 28 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
WSH·BOS
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
5.3
runs / game
4.0
5.2
runs allowed / game
3.9
43−42
season record
36−46
17−25
home record
16−25
26−17
away record
20−21
W2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
7−3
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.32
home runs / game
0.87
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.80
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

WSH · BOS · 96 days
Washington NationalsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 7−3
Jul 6, 2025at WSHBOS 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at WSHBOS 10 − 3
Jul 4, 2025at WSHBOS 11 − 2
May 12, 2024at BOSBOS 3 − 2
May 11, 2024at BOSBOS 4 − 2
May 10, 2024at BOSWSH 5 − 1
Aug 17, 2023at WSHWSH 10 − 7
Aug 16, 2023at WSHWSH 6 − 2
Aug 15, 2023at WSHBOS 5 − 4
Oct 3, 2021at WSHBOS 7 − 5

WSH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L
Jun 22vs PHI4 − 1W
Jun 21at TB3 − 4L
Jun 20at TB4 − 3W
Jun 19at TB2 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 28vs NYY5 − 4W
Jun 27vs NYY4 − 1W
Jun 26vs NYY6 − 1W
Jun 25vs NYY6 − 3W
Jun 24at COL6 − 8L
Jun 23at COL5 − 2W
Jun 22at COL2 − 3L
Jun 21at SEA1 − 3L
Jun 20at SEA5 − 1W
Jun 19at SEA6 − 2W