bayesRatings

Reds at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CIN 4 – PIT 9
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN000220000481
PIT040010049111
Team box
CIN·PIT
8
hits
11
0
home runs
4
4
walks
8
6
strikeouts
11
179
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-5324
Tyler CallihanPIT2-4113
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT3-4212
Tyler StephensonCIN2-3101
JJ BledayCIN1-3002
Edwin ArroyoCIN2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.19506
Mitch Keller (W)PIT6.05314

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
CIN +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 5 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 48%, PIT 52% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.3 CIN
Expected total
9.0
RedsThe matchupPirates
+109Our fair odds−109
4.3Expected runs4.7
−0.04Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game5.1
4.8Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game8.9
1.23Home runs / game1.22
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
39−42Season record41−42
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+10948%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10952%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.3our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
Jun 27 at PIT
last game
Jun 27 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
CIN·PIT
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
5.1
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.8
39−42
season record
41−42
19−22
home record
22−22
20−20
away record
19−20
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.9
1.23
home runs / game
1.22
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.53
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 95 days
Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Jun 27at PITCIN 9 − 7
Jun 26at PITCIN 6 − 4
May 3at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W