bayesRatings

Brewers at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 23 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final MIL 2 – CIN 0
← MLB / Jun 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000001010240
CIN000000000022
Team box
MIL·CIN
4
hits
2
0
home runs
0
4
walks
0
14
strikeouts
13
122
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BauersMIL1-3001
Jose TrevinoCIN1-3000
Nathaniel LoweCIN1-3000
William ContrerasMIL1-4000
Brice TurangMIL1-4100
Andrew VaughnMIL0-1101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Sproat (W)MIL6.010010
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00000
Nick LodoloCIN4.02016
Julian Garcia (L)CIN1.20123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · MIL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, CIN 42% · Updated Jun 23

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.7 CIN
Expected total
8.9
BrewersThe matchupReds
−138Our fair odds+138
5.2Expected runs3.7
+0.35Power rating−0.05
5.2Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.8
8.6Hits / game7.6
0.89Home runs / game1.25
4.2Walks drawn / game3.8
47−29Season record37−40
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair58.0%42.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13858%−10751.8%———
CINCincinnati Reds+13842%−11252.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, 11 Kstarted
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CIN
Jun 22 at CIN
last game
Jun 22 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
MIL·CIN
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.2
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
47−29
season record
37−40
25−15
home record
19−20
22−14
away record
18−20
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.6
0.89
home runs / game
1.25
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.39
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

MIL · CIN · 90 days
Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at CINMIL 6 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at CINMIL 10 − 8
Jun 4, 2025at CINMIL 9 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at CINMIL 3 − 2

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L