bayesRatings

Brewers at Reds

MLB · Monday, Jun 22 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final MIL 2 – CIN 1
← MLB / Jun 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIL0000000002230
CIN0000000001120
Team box
MIL·CIN
3
hits
2
0
home runs
0
3
walks
0
11
strikeouts
14
128
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL2-4000
Tyler StephensonCIN1-3000
Dane MyersCIN1-2000
Sal StewartCIN0-4001
Joey OrtizMIL0-3001
Garrett MitchellMIL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon WoodruffMIL6.010010
Trevor Megill (W)MIL1.00001
Joel Kuhnel (S)MIL1.01000
Brady SingerCIN7.02027
Tony Santillan (L)CIN1.00110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
MIL +3
12345678910
largest lead: CIN 0 · MIL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, CIN 42% · Updated Jun 22

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.3 – 3.8 CIN
Expected total
9.1
BrewersThe matchupReds
−136Our fair odds+136
5.3Expected runs3.8
+0.34Power rating−0.04
5.3Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game4.9
8.7Hits / game7.7
0.91Home runs / game1.26
4.2Walks drawn / game3.8
46−29Season record37−39
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair57.7%42.3%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13658%−15460.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+13642%+12943.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILBrandon Woodruff SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 9 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 2.40 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CIN
Jun 21 at ATL
last game
Jun 21 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
MIL·CIN
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.3
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.9
46−29
season record
37−39
25−15
home record
19−19
21−14
away record
18−20
W1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
7.7
0.91
home runs / game
1.26
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.40
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

MIL · CIN · 89 days
Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at CINMIL 6 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at CINMIL 10 − 8
Jun 4, 2025at CINMIL 9 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2
Jun 2, 2025at CINMIL 3 − 2
Apr 6, 2025at MILMIL 8 − 2

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L
Jun 12vs PHI6 − 0W
Jun 10at ATH3 − 4L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W
Jun 12vs ARI2 − 5L
Jun 10at SD4 − 5L