bayesRatings

Reds at Pirates

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final CIN 6 – PIT 4
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN040000020681
PIT100012000490
Team box
CIN·PIT
8
hits
9
1
home runs
3
2
walks
2
13
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Noelvi MarteCIN1-1112
Marcell OzunaPIT2-3111
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-4111
Konnor GriffinPIT2-4111
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4101
Blake DunnCIN1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN5.16316
Brock Burke (W)CIN1.00012
Caleb Ferguson (S)CIN1.01001
Paul SkenesPIT5.06427
Mason Montgomery (L)PIT0.22202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 1 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.7 – 4.2 CIN
Expected total
8.9
RedsThe matchupPirates
+111Our fair odds−111
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.06Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.8Allowed / game4.7
7.6Hits / game8.9
1.23Home runs / game1.19
3.8Walks drawn / game3.7
37−42Season record41−40
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+11147%+14640.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11153%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
CINCincinnati Reds+0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more40%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·PIT
Jun 24 vs MIL
last game
Jun 25 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
CIN·PIT
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.7
37−42
season record
41−40
19−22
home record
22−20
18−20
away record
19−20
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.9
1.23
home runs / game
1.19
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.53
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

CIN · PIT · 93 days
Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 7−3
May 3at PITPIT 1 − 0
May 2at PITPIT 17 − 7
May 1at PITPIT 9 − 1
Apr 1at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 31at CINPIT 8 − 3
Mar 30at CINCIN 2 − 0
Sep 25, 2025at CINCIN 2 − 1
Sep 24, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 3
Sep 23, 2025at CINPIT 4 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at PITCIN 14 − 8

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W
Jun 16at ATH6 − 5W
Jun 15at ATH2 − 11L
Jun 14vs MIA2 − 4L