bayesRatings

Brewers at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Jun 24 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final MIL 6 – CIN 5
← MLB / Jun 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0030003006111
CIN0000011305110
Team box
MIL·CIN
11
hits
11
2
home runs
1
4
walks
11
8
strikeouts
6
214
pitches thrown
154
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL3-3212
Spencer SteerCIN2-5112
Jake BauersMIL2-4211
Andrew VaughnMIL1-1003
Eugenio SuarezCIN2-3001
Blake DunnCIN2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane DrohanMIL4.15035
Chad Patrick (W)MIL1.21131
Joel Kuhnel (S)MIL1.11020
Rhett Lowder (L)CIN5.28316

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
MIL +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · MIL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, CIN 42% · Updated Jun 24

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.7 CIN
Expected total
8.8
BrewersThe matchupReds
−140Our fair odds+140
5.2Expected runs3.7
+0.35Power rating−0.05
5.2Runs / game4.2
3.6Allowed / game4.8
8.6Hits / game7.5
0.88Home runs / game1.23
4.2Walks drawn / game3.7
48−29Season record37−41
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CIN chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14058%−13156.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+14042%+10947.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byCIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CINRhett Lowder SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CIN
Jun 23 at CIN
last game
Jun 23 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
MIL·CIN
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.2
runs / game
4.2
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
48−29
season record
37−41
25−15
home record
19−21
23−14
away record
18−20
W3
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
7.5
0.88
home runs / game
1.23
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.39
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

MIL · CIN · 91 days
Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 4−6
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at CINMIL 6 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at CINMIL 10 − 8
Jun 4, 2025at CINMIL 9 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 2

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W
Jun 13vs PHI8 − 9L

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L
Jun 16vs NYM5 − 3W
Jun 15vs NYM12 − 0W
Jun 14vs ARI3 − 5L
Jun 13vs ARI2 − 1W