bayesRatings

Pirates at Phillies

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final PIT 11 – PHI 7
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT00026000311110
PHI203000020792
Team box
PIT·PHI
11
hits
9
3
home runs
4
5
walks
3
13
strikeouts
13
166
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Endy RodriguezPIT2-3114
Brandon MarshPHI2-5222
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-3212
Bryce HarperPHI1-4112
Trea TurnerPHI2-5211
Jared TrioloPIT1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT6.05518
Aaron Nola (L)PHI4.18725

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 5 · PIT 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, PHI 55% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.5 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.7
PiratesThe matchupPhillies
+124Our fair odds−124
4.2Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.13
5.1Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.4
9.0Hits / game7.9
1.25Home runs / game1.30
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
42−42Season record47−37
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.7%55.3%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12445%−10751.8%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12455%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 21 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·PHI
Jun 28 vs CIN
last game
Jun 28 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
PIT·PHI
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
5.1
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
42−42
season record
47−37
23−22
home record
23−19
19−20
away record
24−18
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
9.0
hits / game
7.9
1.25
home runs / game
1.30
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.65
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

PIT · PHI · 96 days
Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
May 17at PITPHI 6 − 0
May 16at PITPHI 6 − 0
May 15at PITPHI 11 − 9
Jun 8, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
May 18, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
May 17, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 2
May 16, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at PITPHI 6 − 0

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W
Jun 20at COL1 − 2L
Jun 19at COL3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATH12 − 4W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W
Jun 24at WSH5 − 4W
Jun 23at WSH14 − 9W
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L
Jun 21vs NYM6 − 2W
Jun 20vs NYM15 − 3W
Jun 18vs NYM4 − 6L