bayesRatings

Pirates at Phillies

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 11:35 AM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final PIT 6 – PHI 1
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT0000102216140
PHI001000000140
Team box
PIT·PHI
14
hits
4
2
home runs
0
6
walks
2
12
strikeouts
10
130
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick GonzalesPIT3-5112
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT2-4103
Endy RodriguezPIT1-4111
Jake MangumPIT3-5200
Bryce HarperPHI1-4001
Brandon LowePIT2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jared JonesPIT4.02126
Carmen Mlodzinski (W)PIT3.02000
Alan RangelPHI4.03044
Jose Alvarado (L)PHI1.03202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +5
PIT +5
123456789
largest lead: PHI 1 · PIT 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 44%, PHI 56% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.7 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.9
PiratesThe matchupPhillies
+126Our fair odds−126
4.2Expected runs4.7
−0.03Power rating+0.14
5.1Runs / game4.5
4.9Allowed / game4.4
9.0Hits / game8.0
1.25Home runs / game1.34
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
43−44Season record49−38
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · PHI chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12644%+11446.7%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−12656%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHIAlan Rangel RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·PHI
Jul 1 at PHI
last game
Jul 1 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
PIT·PHI
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
5.1
runs / game
4.5
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
43−44
season record
49−38
23−22
home record
25−20
20−22
away record
24−18
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
9.0
hits / game
8.0
1.25
home runs / game
1.34
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.64
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

PIT · PHI · 99 days
Pittsburgh PiratesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 6−4
Jul 1at PHIPHI 10 − 6
Jun 30at PHIPHI 8 − 0
Jun 29at PHIPIT 11 − 7
May 17at PITPHI 6 − 0
May 16at PITPHI 6 − 0
May 15at PITPHI 11 − 9
Jun 8, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
May 18, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W
Jun 23vs SEA2 − 3L
Jun 21at COL8 − 6W

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jul 1vs PIT10 − 6W
Jun 30vs PIT8 − 0W
Jun 29vs PIT7 − 11L
Jun 28at NYM5 − 4W
Jun 27at NYM2 − 6L
Jun 26at NYM2 − 1W
Jun 25at WSH10 − 5W
Jun 24at WSH5 − 4W
Jun 23at WSH14 − 9W
Jun 22at WSH1 − 4L