bayesRatings

Brewers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 8:45 PM CT · Chase Field · Final MIL 7 – ARI 4
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
MIL021000000047121
ARI00300000001493
Team box
MIL·ARI
12
hits
9
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
10
strikeouts
7
172
pitches thrown
182
1
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL3-6102
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4112
Ildemaro VargasARI3-5001
Jake BauersMIL3-6101
Nolan ArenadoARI1-5002
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle HarrisonMIL2.25313
Grant Anderson (W)MIL2.01011
Jose CabreraARI3.16333
Ryan Thompson (L)ARI1.02212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
MIL +4
1234567891011
largest lead: ARI 0 · MIL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 57%, ARI 43% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.2 – 3.9 ARI
Expected total
9.2
BrewersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−135Our fair odds+135
5.2Expected runs3.9
+0.35Power rating−0.02
5.1Runs / game4.3
3.7Allowed / game4.6
8.6Hits / game7.9
0.93Home runs / game0.91
4.2Walks drawn / game3.2
53−32Season record43−43
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair57.5%42.5%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13557%−14258.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+13542%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byARI wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ARIJose Cabrera SP · last 2 starts: 10.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·ARI
Jul 2 vs CIN
last game
Jul 1 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
MIL·ARI
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
5.1
runs / game
4.3
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
53−32
season record
43−43
29−18
home record
26−18
24−14
away record
17−25
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
7.9
0.93
home runs / game
0.91
4.2
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
9.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.7
0.40
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

MIL · ARI · 100 days
Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Apr 30at MILMIL 13 − 1
Apr 29at MILARI 6 − 2
Apr 28at MILMIL 13 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at MILARI 6 − 4
Aug 27, 2025at MILARI 3 − 2
Aug 26, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8
Aug 25, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 5
Apr 13, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 4
Apr 11, 2025at ARIMIL 7 − 0

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W
Jun 29vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 28vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 27vs CHC2 − 8L
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 1vs SF4 − 6L
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W
Jun 29vs SF5 − 4W
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W
Jun 22at STL2 − 3L
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L