bayesRatings

Giants at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final SF 6 – ARI 4
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0000330006112
ARI000000040471
Team box
SF·ARI
11
hits
7
2
home runs
0
1
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
157
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heliot RamosSF2-4212
Victor BericotoSF2-4112
Ketel MarteARI2-4101
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-4201
Drew CavanaughSF2-4001
Pavin SmithARI1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor McDonald (W)SF6.01005
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.00002
Zac Gallen (L)ARI5.27614

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · SF 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, ARI 53% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 SF
Expected total
9.1
GiantsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+113Our fair odds−113
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating−0.01
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.7Allowed / game4.6
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.07Home runs / game0.92
2.4Walks drawn / game3.2
35−50Season record43−42
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ARI chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%+10947.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11353%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 9.18 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ARI
Jun 30 at ARI
last game
Jun 30 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 85+ games
SF·ARI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
35−50
season record
43−42
18−22
home record
26−17
17−28
away record
17−25
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.07
home runs / game
0.92
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.68
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

SF · ARI · 98 days
San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 9−1
Jun 30at ARIARI 8 − 2
Jun 29at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 27at SFARI 3 − 2
May 26at SFARI 7 − 5
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3
May 18at ARIARI 12 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at ARISF 5 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 30at ARI2 − 8L
Jun 29at ARI4 − 5L
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 30vs SF8 − 2W
Jun 29vs SF5 − 4W
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W
Jun 22at STL2 − 3L
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L