bayesRatings

Braves at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Jun 27 · 8:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ATL 0 – SF 5
← MLB / Jun 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000000010
SF02300000561
Team box
ATL·SF
1
hits
6
0
home runs
2
3
walks
1
7
strikeouts
8
116
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Rafael DeversSF2-3224
Mauricio DubonATL1-3000
Willy AdamesSF1-3000
Luis ArraezSF1-4100
Casey SchmittSF1-4100
Drew GilbertSF0-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Elder (L)ATL4.05514
Logan Webb (W)SF7.01026

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 5 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, SF 46% · Updated Jun 27

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.5
BravesThe matchupGiants
−116Our fair odds+116
4.7Expected runs3.9
+0.14Power rating−0.08
4.8Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.8
8.5Hits / game8.8
1.29Home runs / game1.06
2.9Walks drawn / game2.4
49−31Season record33−48
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11654%+10947.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11646%−13156.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySF wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 24.0 IP, 1.12 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SF
Jun 26 at SF
last game
Jun 26 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
ATL·SF
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.8
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
49−31
season record
33−48
24−14
home record
16−22
25−17
away record
17−26
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.8
1.29
home runs / game
1.06
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.44
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

ATL · SF · 94 days
Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 8−2
Jun 26at SFATL 3 − 1
Jun 17at ATLSF 7 − 5
Jun 16at ATLSF 7 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2024at SFSF 6 − 0

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W