bayesRatings

Braves at Giants

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ATL 3 – SF 1
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL011010000380
SF100000000172
Team box
ATL·SF
8
hits
7
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
6
strikeouts
5
148
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3002
Matt OlsonATL2-4000
Dominic SmithATL1-3001
Mauricio DubonATL2-5200
Willy AdamesSF2-3000
Rafael DeversSF1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo LopezATL3.04101
Dylan Lee (W)ATL1.21000
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00000
Trevor McDonald (L)SF5.17313

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · ATL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, SF 47% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.6
BravesThe matchupGiants
−115Our fair odds+115
4.7Expected runs3.9
+0.13Power rating−0.08
4.9Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.8
8.5Hits / game8.8
1.30Home runs / game1.07
2.9Walks drawn / game2.4
48−31Season record33−47
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.4%46.6%
Kalshi55.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11553%−12655.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11547%+10149.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySF wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 5.91 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.17 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SF
Jun 24 at SD
last game
Jun 25 vs ATH
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
ATL·SF
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.9
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.8
48−31
season record
33−47
24−14
home record
16−21
24−17
away record
17−26
L4
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
8.8
1.30
home runs / game
1.07
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.44
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

ATL · SF · 93 days
Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 8−2
Jun 17at ATLSF 7 − 5
Jun 16at ATLSF 7 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4
Aug 15, 2024at SFSF 6 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at SFATL 13 − 2

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L
Jun 14at NYM1 − 8L
Jun 13at NYM3 − 1W

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W
Jun 14vs CHC5 − 1W
Jun 13vs CHC1 − 6L