bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rays

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final ARI 1 – TB 6
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI100000000180
TB30000030660
Team box
ARI·TB
8
hits
6
1
home runs
2
1
walks
2
4
strikeouts
0
106
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB1-3113
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4111
Cedric MullinsTB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB2-3201
Corbin CarrollARI2-4000
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Gallen (L)ARI6.24520
Nick Martinez (W)TB5.26103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · ARI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.4 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
8.7
DiamondbacksThe matchupRays
+112Our fair odds−112
4.2Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating+0.04
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.7
0.89Home runs / game0.86
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
41−39Season record45−33
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TB chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11247%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11253%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more37%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more27%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 9.39 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.42 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TB
Jun 24 at STL
last game
Jun 25 vs KC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
ARI·TB
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
41−39
season record
45−33
24−17
home record
28−12
17−22
away record
17−21
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.7
0.89
home runs / game
0.86
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.35
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ARI · TB · 93 days
Arizona DiamondbacksTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 7−2
Apr 24, 2025at ARITB 7 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at ARITB 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at TBTB 8 − 7
Aug 17, 2024at TBTB 6 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 29, 2023at ARITB 6 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at ARITB 3 − 2
Jun 27, 2023at ARIARI 8 − 4

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W
Jun 22at STL2 − 3L
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L
Jun 19vs MIN9 − 5W
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L
Jun 15vs LAA4 − 3W
Jun 14at CIN5 − 3W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L
Jun 16at LAD0 − 1L
Jun 15at LAD3 − 4L