bayesRatings

Braves at Giants

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final ATL 2 – SF 3
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000011262
SF000002103101
Team box
ATL·SF
6
hits
10
0
home runs
0
1
walks
2
3
strikeouts
12
129
pitches thrown
113
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL3-4100
Luis ArraezSF2-3101
Matt ChapmanSF2-4000
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-4001
Dominic SmithATL1-1000
Austin RileyATL0-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (L)ATL6.081110
Robbie Ray (W)SF8.04012
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.02101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, SF 47% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.5
BravesThe matchupGiants
−113Our fair odds+113
4.6Expected runs3.9
+0.12Power rating−0.07
4.8Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.7
8.4Hits / game8.7
1.27Home runs / game1.07
2.9Walks drawn / game2.4
49−32Season record34−48
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SF chance
Our model fair53.1%46.9%
Kalshi64.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−18364.6%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%+14640.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySF wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 19 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.41 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SF
Jun 27 at SF
last game
Jun 27 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
ATL·SF
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.8
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
49−32
season record
34−48
24−14
home record
17−22
25−18
away record
17−26
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
8.7
1.27
home runs / game
1.07
2.9
walks drawn / game
2.4
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.43
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

ATL · SF · 95 days
Atlanta BravesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 8−2
Jun 27at SFSF 5 − 0
Jun 26at SFATL 3 − 1
Jun 17at ATLSF 7 − 5
Jun 16at ATLSF 7 − 2
Jul 23, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 3
Jul 22, 2025at ATLSF 9 − 0
Jul 21, 2025at ATLATL 9 − 5
Jun 8, 2025at SFSF 4 − 3
Jun 7, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 6, 2025at SFSF 5 − 4

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L
Jun 16vs SF2 − 7L

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W
Jun 16at ATL7 − 2W