bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rays

MLB · Sunday, Jun 28 · 12:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final ARI 1 – TB 5
← MLB / Jun 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000010150
TB120011005100
Team box
ARI·TB
5
hits
10
1
home runs
3
1
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB3-3112
Ketel MarteARI1-3111
Cedric MullinsTB1-4111
Ben WilliamsonTB1-4111
Yandy DiazTB1-2101
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI6.08523
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB6.03015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 47%, TB 53% · Updated Jun 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 4.5 – 4.1 ARI
Expected total
8.6
DiamondbacksThe matchupRays
+115Our fair odds−115
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating+0.05
4.3Runs / game4.5
4.6Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.6
0.89Home runs / game0.89
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
41−41Season record47−33
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TB chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11547%+15938.6%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−11553%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 7 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TB
Jun 27 at TB
last game
Jun 27 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
ARI·TB
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.3
runs / game
4.5
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
41−41
season record
47−33
24−17
home record
30−12
17−24
away record
17−21
L2
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.6
0.89
home runs / game
0.89
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.34
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

ARI · TB · 95 days
Arizona DiamondbacksTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 9−1
Jun 27at TBTB 4 − 2
Jun 26at TBTB 6 − 1
Apr 24, 2025at ARITB 7 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at ARITB 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at TBTB 8 − 7
Aug 17, 2024at TBTB 6 − 1
Aug 16, 2024at TBTB 5 − 4
Jun 29, 2023at ARITB 6 − 1
Jun 28, 2023at ARITB 3 − 2

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W
Jun 22at STL2 − 3L
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L
Jun 19vs MIN9 − 5W
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W
Jun 16vs LAA0 − 7L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jun 27vs ARI4 − 2W
Jun 26vs ARI6 − 1W
Jun 25vs KC13 − 2W
Jun 24vs KC5 − 3W
Jun 23vs KC5 − 12L
Jun 22vs KC1 − 2L
Jun 21vs WSH4 − 3W
Jun 20vs WSH3 − 4L
Jun 19vs WSH5 − 2W
Jun 17at LAD4 − 5L