bayesRatings

Giants at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final SF 4 – ARI 5
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000010012490
ARI10003100561
Team box
SF·ARI
9
hits
6
1
home runs
2
1
walks
6
3
strikeouts
3
143
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI2-2211
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3003
Ketel MarteARI1-3211
Heliot RamosSF1-4111
Luis ArraezSF2-4000
Victor BericotoSF2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)SF4.14433
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI7.05101
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.03200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, ARI 53% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 SF
Expected total
9.1
GiantsThe matchupDiamondbacks
+111Our fair odds−111
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.07Power rating−0.03
4.1Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.6
8.8Hits / game7.9
1.06Home runs / game0.89
2.4Walks drawn / game3.1
35−48Season record41−42
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ARI chance
Our model fair47.4%52.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11147%+11446.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−11153%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 1.10 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ARI
Jun 28 vs ATL
last game
Jun 28 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
SF·ARI
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
35−48
season record
41−42
18−22
home record
24−17
17−26
away record
17−25
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.8
hits / game
7.9
1.06
home runs / game
0.89
2.4
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.70
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

SF · ARI · 96 days
San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 9−1
May 27at SFARI 3 − 2
May 26at SFARI 7 − 5
May 25at SFARI 6 − 2
May 20at ARIARI 6 − 3
May 19at ARIARI 5 − 3
May 18at ARIARI 12 − 2
Sep 17, 2025at ARISF 5 − 1
Sep 16, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at ARIARI 8 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at SFARI 5 − 3

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jun 28vs ATL3 − 2W
Jun 27vs ATL5 − 0W
Jun 26vs ATL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs ATH6 − 9L
Jun 24vs ATH2 − 1W
Jun 23vs ATH3 − 1W
Jun 21at MIA1 − 2L
Jun 20at MIA3 − 6L
Jun 19at MIA3 − 4L
Jun 17at ATL7 − 5W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 28at TB1 − 5L
Jun 27at TB2 − 4L
Jun 26at TB1 − 6L
Jun 24at STL9 − 4W
Jun 23at STL4 − 3W
Jun 22at STL2 − 3L
Jun 21vs MIN2 − 4L
Jun 20vs MIN8 − 16L
Jun 19vs MIN9 − 5W
Jun 17vs LAA8 − 1W