bayesRatings

Reds at Brewers

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CIN 3 – MIL 5
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN100020000391
MIL00000212572
Team box
CIN·MIL
9
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
6
10
strikeouts
6
158
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Elly De La CruzCIN1-5112
Joey OrtizMIL1-4112
Brice TurangMIL1-4111
Dane MyersCIN1-2001
Jake BauersMIL1-2001
Andrew VaughnMIL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick LodoloCIN5.01044
Sam Moll (L)CIN1.01101
Robert GasserMIL5.27315
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.01001
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · CIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 39%, MIL 61% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
MIL by 1.5
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.6 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupBrewers
+158Our fair odds−158
3.6Expected runs5.1
−0.05Power rating+0.34
4.3Runs / game5.2
4.9Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game8.6
1.22Home runs / game0.91
3.8Walks drawn / game4.2
39−43Season record50−31
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+15839%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−15861%−13757.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.5
CINCincinnati Reds+1.5our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINNick Lodolo SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIL
Jun 28 at PIT
last game
Jun 28 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
CIN·MIL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.3
runs / game
5.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.7
39−43
season record
50−31
19−22
home record
26−17
20−21
away record
24−14
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.6
hits / game
8.6
1.22
home runs / game
0.91
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.54
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

CIN · MIL · 96 days
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at CINMIL 6 − 5
Aug 15, 2025at CINMIL 10 − 8
Jun 4, 2025at CINMIL 9 − 1

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W
Jun 19at NYY0 − 5L
Jun 17vs NYM1 − 9L

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jun 28vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 27vs CHC2 − 8L
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L