bayesRatings

Cubs at Brewers

MLB · Saturday, Jun 27 · 6:10 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CHC 8 – MIL 2
← MLB / Jun 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000204101890
MIL100010000250
Team box
CHC·MIL
9
hits
5
3
home runs
1
5
walks
1
11
strikeouts
5
116
pitches thrown
181
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC1-4113
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-5112
Michael ConfortoCHC1-1111
Jackson ChourioMIL1-4111
Nico HoernerCHC2-4101
Sal FrelickMIL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
David Peterson (W)CHC5.25202
Kyle HarrisonMIL5.03219
Chad Patrick (L)MIL0.22420

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · CHC 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 41%, MIL 59% · Updated Jun 27

Expected margin
MIL by 0.7
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 4.0 CHC
Expected total
8.7
CubsThe matchupBrewers
+141Our fair odds−141
4.0Expected runs4.7
+0.11Power rating+0.38
4.9Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game3.6
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.17Home runs / game0.91
4.4Walks drawn / game4.2
44−38Season record50−29
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · MIL chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi43.7%60.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+14141%+12943.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14159%−15460.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.7
CHCChicago Cubs+0.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.7 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more41%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 6.14 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·MIL
Jun 26 at MIL
last game
Jun 26 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
CHC·MIL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.9
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.6
44−38
season record
50−29
23−17
home record
26−15
21−21
away record
24−14
L1
streak
W5
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.17
home runs / game
0.91
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.40
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

CHC · MIL · 94 days
Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Jun 26at MILMIL 6 − 2
May 20at CHCMIL 5 − 0
May 19at CHCMIL 5 − 2
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post
Oct 6, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3post
Aug 21, 2025at CHCMIL 4 − 1

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W