bayesRatings

Cubs at Brewers

MLB · Friday, Jun 26 · 6:45 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CHC 2 – MIL 6
← MLB / Jun 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000010010231
MIL000003216110
Team box
CHC·MIL
3
hits
11
1
home runs
2
7
walks
5
8
strikeouts
8
149
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
William ContrerasMIL2-3112
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-2112
Garrett MitchellMIL1-4112
Christian YelichMIL2-5001
David HamiltonMIL2-4001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin ReaCHC5.05134
Ethan Roberts (L)CHC1.02210
Jacob Misiorowski (W)MIL6.02148

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
CHC +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · CHC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 42%, MIL 58% · Updated Jun 26

Expected margin
MIL by 0.6
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 4.0 CHC
Expected total
8.7
CubsThe matchupBrewers
+137Our fair odds−137
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.11Power rating+0.37
4.9Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game3.6
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.17Home runs / game0.90
4.4Walks drawn / game4.2
44−37Season record49−29
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · MIL chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+13742%+19833.5%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13758%−23970.5%———
SpreadMIL by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs+0.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 17%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more40%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 0.82 ERA, 30 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·MIL
Jun 25 at NYM
last game
Jun 24 at CIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
CHC·MIL
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.9
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.6
44−37
season record
49−29
23−17
home record
25−15
21−20
away record
24−14
W4
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.17
home runs / game
0.90
4.4
walks drawn / game
4.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CHC · MIL · 93 days
Chicago CubsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
May 20at CHCMIL 5 − 0
May 19at CHCMIL 5 − 2
May 18at CHCMIL 9 − 3
Oct 11, 2025at MILMIL 3 − 1post
Oct 9, 2025at CHCCHC 6 − 0post
Oct 8, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3post
Oct 6, 2025at MILMIL 7 − 3post
Oct 4, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 3post
Aug 21, 2025at CHCMIL 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W
Jun 16vs COL2 − 5L
Jun 15vs COL5 − 4W
Jun 14at SF1 − 5L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L
Jun 19at ATL2 − 3L
Jun 18vs CLE2 − 4L
Jun 17vs CLE9 − 4W
Jun 16vs CLE2 − 1W
Jun 14vs PHI4 − 0W