bayesRatings

Reds at Brewers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 1 · 7:00 PM CT · American Family Field · Final CIN 2 – MIL 4
← MLB / Jul 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN020000000282
MIL20000020480
Team box
CIN·MIL
8
hits
8
1
home runs
0
1
walks
7
10
strikeouts
4
161
pitches thrown
114
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Garrett MitchellMIL4-4101
Noelvi MarteCIN1-4112
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4100
Elly De La CruzCIN2-4000
William ContrerasMIL1-4001
Eugenio SuarezCIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew AbbottCIN5.05253
Brock Burke (L)CIN0.22210
Shane DrohanMIL5.26217
Aaron Ashby (W)MIL1.11002
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
CIN +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 2 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 38%, MIL 62% · Updated Jul 1

Expected margin
MIL by 1.6
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.5 CIN
Expected total
8.7
RedsThe matchupBrewers
+162Our fair odds−162
3.5Expected runs5.1
−0.06Power rating+0.37
4.2Runs / game5.2
4.9Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game8.7
1.21Home runs / game0.94
3.8Walks drawn / game4.2
39−45Season record52−31
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIL chance
Our model fair38.2%61.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+16238%+13442.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−16262%−16161.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.6
CINCincinnati Reds+1.6our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.6 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 15 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 14 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 12%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 9%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more50%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more39%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINAndrew Abbott SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIL
Jun 30 at MIL
last game
Jun 30 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
CIN·MIL
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
4.2
runs / game
5.2
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.7
39−45
season record
52−31
19−22
home record
28−17
20−23
away record
24−14
L3
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.7
1.21
home runs / game
0.94
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.9
0.54
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CIN · MIL · 98 days
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 7−3
Jun 30at MILMIL 7 − 2
Jun 29at MILMIL 5 − 3
Jun 24at CINMIL 6 − 5
Jun 23at CINMIL 2 − 0
Jun 22at CINMIL 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 2
Sep 27, 2025at MILCIN 7 − 4
Sep 26, 2025at MILCIN 3 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at CINMIL 6 − 5

CIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Jun 30at MIL2 − 7L
Jun 29at MIL3 − 5L
Jun 28at PIT4 − 9L
Jun 27at PIT9 − 7W
Jun 26at PIT6 − 4W
Jun 24vs MIL5 − 6L
Jun 23vs MIL0 − 2L
Jun 22vs MIL1 − 2L
Jun 21at NYY4 − 1W
Jun 20at NYY10 − 2W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W
Jun 29vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 28vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 27vs CHC2 − 8L
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W
Jun 24at CIN6 − 5W
Jun 23at CIN2 − 0W
Jun 22at CIN2 − 1W
Jun 21at ATL9 − 4W
Jun 20at ATL3 − 4L