bayesRatings

Braves at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, Jul 9 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final ATL 10 – PIT 5
← MLB / Jul 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL10230000410111
PIT002201000580
Team box
ATL·PIT
11
hits
8
3
home runs
3
8
walks
5
10
strikeouts
7
157
pitches thrown
203
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake MangumPIT4-5113
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3214
Jim JarvisATL3-5112
Matt OlsonATL1-3211
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4111
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce ElderATL4.05323
Dylan Dodd (W)ATL1.00000
Mitch Keller (L)PIT3.04323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · ATL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, PIT 49% · Updated Jul 9

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.3 PIT
Expected total
9.2
BravesThe matchupPirates
−104Our fair odds+104
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.10Power rating−0.00
4.9Runs / game5.2
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game9.1
1.29Home runs / game1.26
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
53−38Season record47−46
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10451%−11252.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10449%−10751.8%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPIT wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 12.21 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PIT
Jul 8 at PIT
last game
Jul 8 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 91+ games
ATL·PIT
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.9
runs / game
5.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
53−38
season record
47−46
27−18
home record
24−23
26−20
away record
23−23
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
9.1
1.29
home runs / game
1.26
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.45
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ATL · PIT · 106 days
Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
Jul 8at PITATL 3 − 0
Jul 7at PITPIT 12 − 4
Jun 7at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 6at ATLATL 6 − 3
Jun 5at ATLATL 6 − 3
Sep 28, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at ATLPIT 3 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at ATLPIT 9 − 3
May 11, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 3
May 10, 2025at PITATL 3 − 2

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 8at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 8vs ATL0 − 3L
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W