bayesRatings

Mets at Braves

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final NYM 7 – ATL 6
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM01000100327111
ATL02100000216130
Team box
NYM·ATL
11
hits
13
2
home runs
2
5
walks
5
9
strikeouts
13
205
pitches thrown
183
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-5223
Juan SotoNYM1-2113
Michael Harris IIATL3-6002
Carson BengeNYM2-4211
Luis TorrensNYM1-1002
Francisco AlvarezNYM2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Freddy PeraltaNYM4.26116
Brooks Raley (W)NYM0.10001
Luke Weaver (S)NYM1.01021
Reynaldo LopezATL5.03125
Owen Murphy (L)ATL1.01101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 2 · NYM 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
ATL by 0.9
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 3.9 NYM
Expected total
8.7
MetsThe matchupBraves
+129Our fair odds−129
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.9
4.7Allowed / game3.8
7.8Hits / game8.4
1.14Home runs / game1.30
3.0Walks drawn / game3.0
37−53Season record52−36
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12944%+10548.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12956%−12655.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.9
NYMNew York Mets+0.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.9 expected
New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more44%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 10.95 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ATL
Jul 5 at ATL
last game
Jul 5 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 88+ games
NYM·ATL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.9
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
37−53
season record
52−36
19−24
home record
27−17
18−29
away record
25−19
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
8.4
1.14
home runs / game
1.30
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.67
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

NYM · ATL · 103 days
New York MetsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at ATLNYM 12 − 7
Aug 14, 2025at NYMATL 4 − 3

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 5at ATL10 − 9W
Jul 4at ATL3 − 14L
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L