bayesRatings

Mets at Braves

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 7:08 PM CT · Truist Park · Final NYM 3 – ATL 14
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM0000120003101
ATL0141022414121
Team box
NYM·ATL
10
hits
12
2
home runs
5
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
5
181
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL3-5312
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-2212
Austin RileyATL1-4213
Mark VientosNYM2-5112
Mauricio DubonATL1-4212
Eli WhiteATL1-2111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (L)NYM5.05314
Chris Sale (W)ATL5.07323
JR Ritchie (S)ATL3.03014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +11
NYM +11
123456789
largest lead: ATL 11 · NYM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 44%, ATL 56% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.6 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
8.4
MetsThe matchupBraves
+129Our fair odds−129
3.8Expected runs4.6
−0.09Power rating+0.11
4.0Runs / game4.7
4.5Allowed / game3.7
7.7Hits / game8.3
1.12Home runs / game1.26
3.0Walks drawn / game3.0
36−52Season record51−35
2−8Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi39.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:08 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+12944%+15239.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12956%−19966.6%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.56 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·ATL
Jul 3 at ATL
last game
Jul 3 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
NYM·ATL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.0
runs / game
4.7
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.7
36−52
season record
51−35
19−24
home record
26−16
17−28
away record
25−19
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.3
1.12
home runs / game
1.26
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.64
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

NYM · ATL · 101 days
New York MetsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at ATLNYM 12 − 7
Aug 14, 2025at NYMATL 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at NYMATL 11 − 6
Aug 12, 2025at NYMNYM 13 − 5

NYM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Jul 3at ATL3 − 5L
Jul 1at TOR3 − 9L
Jun 30at TOR3 − 0W
Jun 29at TOR1 − 2L
Jun 28vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 27vs PHI6 − 2W
Jun 26vs PHI1 − 2L
Jun 25vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 24vs CHC5 − 10L
Jun 24vs CHC3 − 10L

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L