bayesRatings

Cardinals at Braves

MLB · Thursday, Jul 2 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final STL 11 – ATL 5
← MLB / Jul 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL30000070111150
ATL500000000581
Team box
STL·ATL
15
hits
8
3
home runs
0
3
walks
3
4
strikeouts
6
139
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4214
Nathan ChurchSTL1-5112
Dominic SmithATL1-4103
Masyn WinnSTL3-4101
Alec BurlesonSTL1-5211
Mauricio DubonATL2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin MaySTL0.25521
Gordon Graceffo (W)STL1.00000
Hurston WaldrepATL5.15314
Tyler Kinley (L)ATL0.22310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: ATL 2 · STL 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Jul 2

Expected margin
ATL by 0.9
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
8.4
CardinalsThe matchupBraves
+121Our fair odds−121
3.8Expected runs4.7
−0.01Power rating+0.11
4.4Runs / game4.7
4.6Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.10Home runs / game1.24
3.3Walks drawn / game3.0
44−39Season record50−34
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12145%+10149.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12155%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.9
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.9 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more44%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATLHurston Waldrep SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.89 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ATL
Jul 1 at ATL
last game
Jul 1 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 83+ games
STL·ATL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
44−39
season record
50−34
23−21
home record
25−15
21−18
away record
25−19
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.24
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

STL · ATL · 99 days
St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 1at ATLATL 5 − 1
Jun 30at ATLSTL 5 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at STLATL 7 − 6
Jul 11, 2025at STLATL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at ATLSTL 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 6
Jul 21, 2024at ATLSTL 6 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at ATLSTL 9 − 5

STL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L
Jun 22vs ARI3 − 2W
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W
Jun 19at KC5 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W