bayesRatings

Cardinals at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Jun 30 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final STL 5 – ATL 3
← MLB / Jun 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000401000560
ATL001000110360
Team box
STL·ATL
6
hits
6
2
home runs
0
5
walks
7
6
strikeouts
12
182
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan ChurchSTL1-4113
Nelson VelazquezSTL2-2111
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4002
Lars NootbaarSTL2-4100
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (W)STL5.01149
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.01000
Martin Perez (L)ATL5.05431

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · STL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Jun 30

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupBraves
+121Our fair odds−121
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.02Power rating+0.11
4.5Runs / game4.8
4.6Allowed / game3.7
8.3Hits / game8.4
1.10Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game2.9
43−38Season record49−33
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12145%+12444.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12155%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 11.91 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ATL
Jun 28 vs MIA
last game
Jun 28 at SF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
STL·ATL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.5
runs / game
4.8
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
43−38
season record
49−33
23−21
home record
24−14
20−17
away record
25−19
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.46
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

STL · ATL · 97 days
St. Louis CardinalsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 13, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jul 12, 2025at STLATL 7 − 6
Jul 11, 2025at STLATL 6 − 5
Apr 23, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Apr 22, 2025at ATLSTL 10 − 4
Apr 21, 2025at ATLATL 7 − 6
Jul 21, 2024at ATLSTL 6 − 2
Jul 20, 2024at ATLSTL 9 − 5
Jul 20, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 26, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 1

STL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L
Jun 22vs ARI3 − 2W
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W
Jun 19at KC5 − 6L
Jun 18at KC6 − 14L
Jun 17vs SD1 − 6L

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W
Jun 24at SD2 − 5L
Jun 23at SD6 − 7L
Jun 22at SD0 − 1L
Jun 21vs MIL4 − 9L
Jun 20vs MIL4 − 3W
Jun 19vs MIL3 − 2W
Jun 17vs SF5 − 7L