bayesRatings

Braves at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 7 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final ATL 4 – PIT 12
← MLB / Jul 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL1010000024110
PIT4030031112140
Team box
ATL·PIT
11
hits
14
0
home runs
3
1
walks
7
6
strikeouts
4
164
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT4-53310
Brandon LowePIT3-5201
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-4002
Mauricio DubonATL2-3001
Nick GonzalesPIT2-5001
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Hurston Waldrep (L)ATL3.16752
Paul Skenes (W)PIT6.08214

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +10
ATL +10
123456789
largest lead: PIT 10 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, PIT 49% · Updated Jul 7

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.9 – 4.3 PIT
Expected total
9.2
BravesThe matchupPirates
−105Our fair odds+105
4.9Expected runs4.3
+0.10Power rating−0.00
4.9Runs / game5.2
3.8Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game9.1
1.30Home runs / game1.25
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
52−37Season record46−45
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10551%+12444.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10549%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPIT wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLHurston Waldrep SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PIT
Jul 6 vs NYM
last game
Jul 5 at WSH
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
ATL·PIT
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.9
runs / game
5.2
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.9
52−37
season record
46−45
27−18
home record
23−22
25−19
away record
23−23
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
9.1
1.30
home runs / game
1.25
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.46
errors / game
0.62

Rating Trend

ATL · PIT · 104 days
Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Jun 7at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 6at ATLATL 6 − 3
Jun 5at ATLATL 6 − 3
Sep 28, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at ATLPIT 3 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at ATLPIT 9 − 3
May 11, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 3
May 10, 2025at PITATL 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2
Jun 30, 2024at ATLPIT 4 − 2

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L
Jun 26at SF3 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L