bayesRatings

Pirates at Nationals

MLB · Saturday, Jul 4 · 10:05 AM CT · Nationals Park · Final PIT 7 – WSH 1
← MLB / Jul 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT1400000207110
WSH100000000160
Team box
PIT·WSH
11
hits
6
0
home runs
1
3
walks
5
9
strikeouts
11
148
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James WoodWSH1-2111
Brandon LowePIT1-5002
Nick GonzalesPIT2-3101
Henry DavisPIT1-3102
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-4100
Bryan ReynoldsPIT2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT5.26127
Carson Palmquist (L)WSH1.04403

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +6
PIT +6
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · PIT 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, WSH 51% · Updated Jul 4

Expected margin
PIT by 0.6
Expected score
PIT 5.8 – 5.2 WSH
Expected total
10.9
PiratesThe matchupNationals
+104Our fair odds−104
5.8Expected runs5.2
−0.03Power rating−0.05
5.1Runs / game5.4
4.9Allowed / game5.1
9.1Hits / game8.5
1.26Home runs / game1.37
3.7Walks drawn / game3.3
44−45Season record46−43
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · WSH chance
Our model fair49.0%51.0%
Kalshi61.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 10:05 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10449%−16161.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10451%+12943.7%———
SpreadPIT by 0.6
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.9
Over10.9our total————
Under10.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 0.6 expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 16 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 15%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byWSH wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more43%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more34%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 7%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.565%
Total over 10.549%
Total over 12.534%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 25 Kstarted
WSHCarson Palmquist RP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·WSH
Jul 3 at WSH
last game
Jul 3 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 89+ games
PIT·WSH
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.1
runs / game
5.4
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.1
44−45
season record
46−43
23−22
home record
18−25
21−23
away record
28−18
L1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
9.1
hits / game
8.5
1.26
home runs / game
1.37
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.3
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.63
errors / game
0.80

Rating Trend

PIT · WSH · 101 days
Pittsburgh PiratesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Jul 3at WSHWSH 9 − 5
Apr 16at PITWSH 8 − 7
Apr 15at PITPIT 2 − 0
Apr 14at PITWSH 5 − 4
Apr 13at PITPIT 16 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Sep 13, 2025at WSHPIT 5 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at WSHWSH 6 − 5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0
Apr 16, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 1

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L
Jun 26vs CIN4 − 6L
Jun 25vs SEA5 − 1W
Jun 24vs SEA11 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 3vs PIT9 − 5W
Jul 1at BOS10 − 2W
Jun 30at BOS8 − 1W
Jun 29at BOS3 − 6L
Jun 28at BAL6 − 4W
Jun 27at BAL4 − 3W
Jun 26at BAL1 − 3L
Jun 25vs PHI5 − 10L
Jun 24vs PHI4 − 5L
Jun 23vs PHI9 − 14L