bayesRatings

Braves at Pirates

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 8 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final ATL 3 – PIT 0
← MLB / Jul 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000021350
PIT000000000040
Team box
ATL·PIT
5
hits
4
1
home runs
0
0
walks
2
13
strikeouts
11
147
pitches thrown
121
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey BartATL1-3112
Drake BaldwinATL1-4001
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3100
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Michael Harris IIATL1-4100
Marcell OzunaPIT1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grant HolmesATL5.03015
Dylan Dodd (W)ATL1.00000
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00012
Jared JonesPIT6.00008
Dennis Santana (L)PIT1.02202

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · ATL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, PIT 49% · Updated Jul 8

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 4.9 – 4.4 PIT
Expected total
9.3
BravesThe matchupPirates
−103Our fair odds+103
4.9Expected runs4.4
+0.09Power rating+0.00
4.9Runs / game5.3
3.9Allowed / game4.8
8.5Hits / game9.2
1.29Home runs / game1.27
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
52−38Season record47−45
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10351%+10149.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10349%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.5our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byPIT wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 8 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PIT
Jul 7 at PIT
last game
Jul 7 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 90+ games
ATL·PIT
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.9
runs / game
5.3
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.8
52−38
season record
47−45
27−18
home record
24−22
25−20
away record
23−23
L3
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
9.2
1.29
home runs / game
1.27
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.46
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

ATL · PIT · 105 days
Atlanta BravesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Jul 7at PITPIT 12 − 4
Jun 7at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 6at ATLATL 6 − 3
Jun 5at ATLATL 6 − 3
Sep 28, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at ATLPIT 3 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at ATLPIT 9 − 3
May 11, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 3
May 10, 2025at PITATL 3 − 2
May 9, 2025at PITPIT 3 − 2

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 7at PIT4 − 12L
Jul 6vs NYM6 − 7L
Jul 5vs NYM9 − 10L
Jul 4vs NYM14 − 3W
Jul 3vs NYM5 − 3W
Jul 2vs STL5 − 11L
Jul 1vs STL5 − 1W
Jun 30vs STL3 − 5L
Jun 28at SF2 − 3L
Jun 27at SF0 − 5L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jul 7vs ATL12 − 4W
Jul 5at WSH11 − 5W
Jul 4at WSH7 − 1W
Jul 3at WSH5 − 9L
Jul 2at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 1at PHI6 − 10L
Jun 30at PHI0 − 8L
Jun 29at PHI11 − 7W
Jun 28vs CIN9 − 4W
Jun 27vs CIN7 − 9L