bayesRatings

Brewers at Cardinals

MLB · Monday, Jul 6 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final MIL 4 – STL 3
← MLB / Jul 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000000400481
STL002001000372
Team box
MIL·STL
8
hits
7
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
6
120
pitches thrown
157
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
David HamiltonMIL2-3002
Brice TurangMIL1-4002
Jose FerminSTL2-3001
Masyn WinnSTL2-4001
Garrett MitchellMIL2-3100
Nelson VelazquezSTL1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane Drohan (W)MIL6.06122
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.01002
Dustin MaySTL4.24007
Ryan Fernandez (L)STL0.02200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 57%, STL 43% · Updated Jul 6

Expected margin
MIL by 1.3
Expected score
MIL 5.1 – 3.8 STL
Expected total
8.8
BrewersThe matchupCardinals
−132Our fair odds+132
5.1Expected runs3.8
+0.35Power rating+0.02
5.1Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.3
0.94Home runs / game1.14
4.1Walks drawn / game3.3
55−33Season record47−40
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · STL chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13257%−12154.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+13243%+10149.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.3
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.3our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.3 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 8%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 15 runs: <1%
← MIL wins bySTL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more48%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more37%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILShane Drohan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 8.49 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·STL
Jul 5 at ARI
last game
Jul 5 at CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 87+ games
MIL·STL
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
5.1
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
55−33
season record
47−40
29−18
home record
23−21
26−15
away record
24−19
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.14
4.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.41
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIL · STL · 103 days
Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
May 27at MILMIL 2 − 1
May 26at MILMIL 6 − 0
May 25at MILMIL 5 − 1
May 6at STLMIL 6 − 2
May 4at STLSTL 6 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at STLMIL 3 − 2
Sep 19, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at MILSTL 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at MILMIL 9 − 8

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 5at ARI3 − 2W
Jul 4at ARI3 − 4L
Jul 3at ARI7 − 4W
Jul 2vs CIN2 − 7L
Jul 1vs CIN4 − 2W
Jun 30vs CIN7 − 2W
Jun 29vs CIN5 − 3W
Jun 28vs CHC3 − 4L
Jun 27vs CHC2 − 8L
Jun 26vs CHC6 − 2W

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 5at CHC4 − 6L
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L