bayesRatings

Cardinals at Cubs

MLB · Sunday, Jul 5 · 1:30 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final STL 4 – CHC 6
← MLB / Jul 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000003010472
CHC20000400670
Team box
STL·CHC
7
hits
7
1
home runs
0
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
7
132
pitches thrown
149
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL1-2114
Nico HoernerCHC1-3102
Alex BregmanCHC1-4101
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4100
Alec BurlesonSTL2-4100
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.04323
Javier AssadCHC4.22022
Drew Pomeranz (W)CHC1.01101
Jacob Webb (S)CHC2.01011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 3 · STL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, CHC 54% · Updated Jul 5

Expected margin
CHC by 0.5
Expected score
CHC 4.8 – 4.3 STL
Expected total
9.2
CardinalsThe matchupCubs
+119Our fair odds−119
4.3Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.13
4.6Runs / game5.0
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.14Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game4.4
47−39Season record49−40
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11946%+12444.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−11954%−14859.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.5our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.5 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more30%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CHC
Jul 4 at CHC
last game
Jul 4 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 86+ games
STL·CHC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.6
runs / game
5.0
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
47−39
season record
49−40
23−21
home record
26−19
24−18
away record
23−21
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.14
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.4
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.47
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

STL · CHC · 102 days
St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Jul 4at CHCSTL 3 − 0
Jul 3at CHCSTL 17 − 1
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1
May 30at STLCHC 6 − 1
May 29at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at CHCCHC 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at STLCHC 9 − 1

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jul 4at CHC3 − 0W
Jul 3at CHC17 − 1W
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L

CHC · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jul 4vs STL0 − 3L
Jul 3vs STL1 − 17L
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W