bayesRatings

Padres at Cubs

MLB · Monday, Jun 29 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final SD 2 – CHC 3
← MLB / Jun 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD0011000002110
CHC0001100013100
Team box
SD·CHC
11
hits
10
0
home runs
0
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
9
155
pitches thrown
147
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Seiya SuzukiCHC2-4102
Xander BogaertsSD2-3101
Miguel AndujarSD3-4100
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4001
Alex BregmanCHC2-4000
Dansby SwansonCHC2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin CanningSD4.15223
Jason Adam (L)SD1.02101
Shota ImanagaCHC6.19204
Trent Thornton (W)CHC1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: CHC 1 · SD 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 46%, CHC 54% · Updated Jun 29

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.5 – 4.0 SD
Expected total
8.5
PadresThe matchupCubs
+116Our fair odds−116
4.0Expected runs4.5
+0.05Power rating+0.12
3.9Runs / game4.9
4.1Allowed / game4.4
7.2Hits / game8.2
1.02Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game4.4
43−39Season record46−38
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · CHC chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+11646%+13442.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−11654%−16161.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
SDSan Diego Padres+0.6our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more41%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more30%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·CHC
Jun 28 vs LAD
last game
Jun 28 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
SD·CHC
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.9
runs / game
4.9
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.4
43−39
season record
46−38
23−21
home record
23−17
20−18
away record
23−21
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
8−2
7.2
hits / game
8.2
1.02
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.33
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

SD · CHC · 96 days
San Diego PadresChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Apr 29at SDCHC 5 − 4
Apr 28at SDCHC 8 − 3
Apr 27at SDSD 9 − 7
Oct 2, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Oct 1, 2025at CHCSD 3 − 0post
Sep 30, 2025at CHCCHC 3 − 1post
Apr 16, 2025at SDSD 4 − 2
Apr 15, 2025at SDCHC 2 − 1
Apr 14, 2025at SDSD 10 − 4
Apr 6, 2025at CHCSD 8 − 7

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jun 28vs LAD2 − 4L
Jun 27vs LAD3 − 15L
Jun 26vs LAD7 − 1W
Jun 24vs ATL5 − 2W
Jun 23vs ATL7 − 6W
Jun 22vs ATL1 − 0W
Jun 21at TEX3 − 4L
Jun 20at TEX6 − 4W
Jun 19at TEX7 − 9L
Jun 17at STL6 − 1W

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W
Jun 20vs TOR6 − 8L
Jun 19vs TOR16 − 2W
Jun 17vs COL8 − 6W