bayesRatings

Cardinals at Cubs

MLB · Friday, Jul 3 · 3:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final STL 17 – CHC 1
← MLB / Jul 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL03353210017171
CHC000000100171
Team box
STL·CHC
17
hits
7
3
home runs
0
4
walks
1
7
strikeouts
6
149
pitches thrown
191
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masyn WinnSTL2-4214
Nathan ChurchSTL2-5213
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5104
Ivan HerreraSTL3-4302
Bryan TorresSTL1-2111
Alex BregmanCHC2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre Pallante (W)STL5.25012
David Peterson (L)CHC3.291033

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +17
STL +17
123456789
largest lead: CHC 0 · STL 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 44%, CHC 56% · Updated Jul 3

Expected margin
CHC by 0.8
Expected score
CHC 5.1 – 4.2 STL
Expected total
9.3
CardinalsThe matchupCubs
+127Our fair odds−127
4.2Expected runs5.1
−0.01Power rating+0.17
4.5Runs / game5.1
4.6Allowed / game4.4
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.12Home runs / game1.29
3.3Walks drawn / game4.5
45−39Season record49−38
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · CHC chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12744%+10548.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−12756%−13156.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 14%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins byCHC wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more43%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more33%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.66 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCDavid Peterson SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·CHC
Jul 2 at ATL
last game
Jul 1 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 84+ games
STL·CHC
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.5
runs / game
5.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
45−39
season record
49−38
23−21
home record
26−17
22−18
away record
23−21
W1
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
9−1
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.12
home runs / game
1.29
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.5
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.46
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

STL · CHC · 100 days
St. Louis CardinalsChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
May 31at STLSTL 5 − 1
May 30at STLCHC 6 − 1
May 29at STLSTL 6 − 5
Sep 28, 2025at CHCCHC 2 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at CHCCHC 12 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 2
Aug 9, 2025at STLCHC 9 − 1
Aug 8, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 0
Jul 6, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 0

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 2at ATL11 − 5W
Jul 1at ATL1 − 5L
Jun 30at ATL5 − 3W
Jun 28vs MIA2 − 1W
Jun 27vs MIA1 − 5L
Jun 26vs MIA0 − 4L
Jun 24vs ARI4 − 9L
Jun 23vs ARI3 − 4L
Jun 22vs ARI3 − 2W
Jun 21at KC12 − 10W

CHC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Jul 1vs SD23 − 3W
Jun 30vs SD9 − 7W
Jun 29vs SD3 − 2W
Jun 28at MIL4 − 3W
Jun 27at MIL8 − 2W
Jun 26at MIL2 − 6L
Jun 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 5W
Jun 24at NYM10 − 3W
Jun 23at NYM9 − 6W